DECLINE AND FALL OF BRITISH POWER: 1997 TO 2018

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to examine the decline and fall of British power. “Power” is defined as the ability to influence another party and Michael Mann’s four sources of social power is employed as an analytical tool.The four sources of power are traced in historical terms and their interactions and interconnectednessoutlined.The paper takes as its starting point the state of Britain at the end of 1945 up to the 1990s and whenBlair became Prime Minister.The Blair years would see a growing recourse to Military Power which would lead to its armed forcessimultaneously fighting in two conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq.At the heart of the analysis lies the course of Economic Power which has continued to be the Achilles heel of Britain and a major cause of its decline and fall, which has accelerated since the 2008 Financial Crisis. Ten years on, the consequences would be profound: the deepest recession since the 1920s; the slowest recovery since the 1920s; the worst decade for earnings growth since the 1860s – if not earlier; the highest deficit since the second world war; and the biggest peacetime surge in public debt.Britain’s Economic Power remained fragile albeit the collapse of Britain’s manufacturing base now led to increased reliance on the financial sector to fill this “gap”. The paper has noted the growing influence of the financial sector since the early 1980s and that in the light of Brexit, it remains likely that the financial sector will grow in importance.The paper also looks at the ramifications of the Brexit referendum in terms of the conduct of Political Power both domestically and externally. In particular, with respect to the former, the Referendum has revealed deep cleavages in the UK, with Scotland Northern Ireland voting to remain. Scotland saw its own referendum on independence which saw a relatively narrow vote in favour of remaining in the UK. Given Britain’s nuclear deterrent – one of the country’s claim to “Great Power” status – is located in Scotland, the possibility of a move to independence would have profound consequences for Britain’s Military and Political Power.The paper also looks at the implications of the proposed going it alone on the world stage following Brexit, “Global Britain” in terms of both Military, Political and Economic Power. The Trump Presidency has serious implications for Britain’s intentions in view of the rise in protectionist sentiments in the USA. The ability to seek a global role in Military Power by a return to an “East of Suez” appears ambitious in view ofthe defence spending cuts from 2010 onwards. Indeed, the British Army’s regular force is likely to fall to thesame level as in 1800.The paper critically examines the role of political leadership but also seeks to highlight the nature of Ideological Power, as manifested in what Andress has termed “Cultural Dementia” – a return to an imagined community in the past when Britain had an empire.The referendum appears to have led to the dominance of Political Power/Ideological Power over Economic Power but questions whether this will be sustainable in view of the projected effects of Brexit.