Abstract
The distribution and abundance of woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) have declined dramatically in the past century. Without intervention the most southern population of caribou in eastern North America is expected to disappear within 20 years. Although translocations have reintroduced and reinforced some populations, approximately half of caribou translocation efforts fail. Translocations are resource intensive and risky, and multiple interrelated factors must be considered to assess their potential for success. Structured decision-making tools, such as Bayesian belief networks, provide objective methods to assess different wildlife management scenarios by identifying the key components and relationships in an ecosystem. They can also catalyze dialogue with stakeholders and provide a record of the complex thought processes used in reaching a decision. We developed a Bayesian belief network for a proposed translocation of woodland caribou into a national park on the northeastern coast of Lake Superior, Ontario, Canada. We tested scenarios with favourable (e.g., good physical condition of adult caribou) and unfavourable (e.g., high predator densities) conditions with low, medium, and high numbers of translocated caribou. Under the current conditions at Pukaskwa National Park, augmenting the caribou population is unlikely to recover the species unless wolf densities remain low (<5.5/1000 km2) or if more than 300 animals could be translocated.
Highlights
Boreal populations of woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) historically occupied the boreal forest across North America but are extirpated from the southern limits of that range (Bergerud, 1974)
Decision support tools are transparent, repeatable, and help conceptualize the key factors and their relationships – all of which facilitates framing and understanding the issue. It was under this premise that we developed a Bayesian belief network to explore the feasibility of a successful translocation of woodland caribou into Pukaskwa National Park
Under current conditions in Pukaskwa National Park, the chance of high recovery potential increased with the number of translocated animals to a high of 46% (Table 1)
Summary
Boreal populations of woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) (hereafter “woodland caribou”) historically occupied the boreal forest across North America but are extirpated from the southern limits of that range (Bergerud, 1974). Between 1900 and 1950, boreal caribou retracted northward from Lake Superior (Cringan, 1957). They disappeared from the western shore of Lake Superior between 1905 and 1912 (Riis, 1938a, b, c, d) and were declining and scarce on the Sibley Peninsula by 1914 (Cringan, 1957). Three unconnected populations around northeastern Lake Superior persist as the species’ most southern representatives in the eastern half of North America. These populations became disjunct from the northern herds in the 1950s or 1960s (Bergerud, 1988). Parks Canada must decide between a costly intervention or risk extirpation of a species from a national park
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