Abstract
This multiattribute analysis shows how “the seven steps of decision analysis” is applied to the siting of oil drilling wells in Northern Norway. The study includes an assessment of the frequency of accidents (oil blow-out), calculation of risks under uncertainty, (oil-drift modelling under variable sea-state conditions), consequence analysis (impacts on shores), and utility analysis, (preferences for natural resources). Results of the study show that exploratory oil drilling in the eastern off-shore waters north of the counties Troms and Finnmark (>200 km from the coast) gives the least expected oil pollution damage. Compared to this location, drilling in the western, offshore parts would require an extra willingness to pay (WTP) of 70 mill NOK (10 mill USD). Drilling closer to the shore (≈20 km from the coast) requires an extra WTP of 400 to 500 mill NOK (80 mill USD).
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