Decisions Related to COVID-19 Epidemic, Pandemic, and Endemic Phases

Abstract

The focus of this paper is on COVID-19, the December 2019 dated respiratory epidemic or infection that has ravaged most, if not all, of the world’s 253 “countries” (consisting of 194 independent nation-states, 55 dependent-states, Antarctica, and 3 other territories). Readers of this paper should be aware of at least three facts. First, as of January 2022, the submission date of this paper, COVID-19 continues to impact the world, although to a much lesser extent, given the protection afforded by the mRNA vaccines, the boosters, and the antiviral medications (e.g., oseltamivir, penciclovir, acyclovir, Paxlovid, etc.). Second, the paper should be regarded as being inconclusive in both its outlook and its list of references; it provides, at best, an intermediary account of the continuing COVID-19 pandemic. Third, like the Spanish Flu of 1918, it is speculated that the COVID-19 pandemic will not endure beyond three years and will conclude as an endemic problem by, hopefully, early 2023. Therefore, the paper is partitioned into three sections which, respectively, address the infection’s three phases: epidemic (initial infection), pandemic (worldwide infection) and endemic (pervasive but nonlife-threatening infection) phases. The lessons learned from the range of decisions made throughout the COVID-19 phases should help to inform and better prepare the world for future pathogens and deadly diseases.