Decision-Making Framework, Enhanced by Mutual Inspection for First-Stage Dam Construction Diversion Scheme Selection

Abstract

Construction diversion is necessary for damming, and First-Stage Diversion Scheme Selection (FDSS) is of significance in damming process control. To effectively select the first-stage diversion scheme, a theoretical Decision-Making Framework (DMF) is presented and its decision-making basis includes diversion risk, costs, social attitudes and duration. With multiple aspects of concerns, the FDSS can be solved by Multi-Attribute Decision Making (MADM) methods and the complex diversion risk assessment can be achieved by the Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS). Mutual Inspection (MI) is based on a MADM feature of Partially Different Results (PDR), which should involve different MADM methods in solving the same problem and can reduce method difference-derived error within MADM results by mutually contrasting the PDR and refining ranking messages. Basing on these theoretical studies, the DMF for FDSS is developed, which contains two parts, the Risk Detector that assesses diversion risk of alternatives through MCS and the Decision Solver that undertakes decision-making preliminary and MADM enhanced by MI for solving FDSS. To demonstrate the DMF with MI, a case study that applies suitable MADM methods (viz. TOPSIS and ELECTRE I) for carrying out MI is conducted. Case results show that the DMF can solve the FDSS as it selects the optimal (S6) among six alternatives, the MI can enhance the DMF as it refines ranking messages about alternatives in the final MADM results. The DMF with MI can benefit the damming industry and contribute to the overall water resources management.