Decision-making Control in Military Combat System of Systems: A Prospect Theory Approach

Abstract

In the process of military operation, the choice of action plan is a typical decision-making control problem. Decision makers' judgment and subjective preference for combat situation have a great impact on the selection results. The action plan is represented in this study as an operation loop model based on OODA theory. Therefore, this paper mainly studies the influence of decision-maker preference on operation loop selection control from the perspective of prospect theory. Firstly, the network modeling of kill-web is carried out based on operation loop, in which the preference attributes of decision maker and three kinds of command & control relation are described. Secondly, considering decision preference, the judgment method of damage degree and hit probability of operation loop is analyzed, and an operation loop decision method is proposed. Finally, we verify the feasibility and effectiveness of this method through a case study, and analyze the sensitivity of decision preference attributes. The results show that reference point and risk attitude of decision maker are the key factors that affect the decision of operation loop. Prospect theory is an effective method to analyze the behavior of decision-makers in military combat control.