Decision Support Systems for Coastal Resilience: The Role of Early Warning Systems and Validation

Abstract

This study presents an advanced Integrated Ocean Forecast Decision Support System (DSS) crafted to elevate ocean forecasting capabilities and enable well-informed decision-making, with a specific focus on the Indian Ocean region. The DSS has a visualization module for scientific inference and spatial analysis. It also has a validation component where each weather model is checked against observations from coastal buoys, open ocean buoys, and ASCAT and SCATSAT satellite data. The system integrates the operational forecasts and observation data and automatically informs the users of the best-correlated model. In cases of extreme conditions like cyclones, the system automatically pulls information from some of the meteorological agencies in real-time for further assessment and refining the models. With the forecasts and observations at its disposal, the DSS suggests the most accurate model to be taken into consideration when issuing alerts. Metrics like the scatter index, correlation coefficient, and root mean square error are displayed on a web interface to generate recommendations. This system facilitated decision-makers in issuing alerts for high winds, elevated waves, and other conditions, particularly during various cyclones in the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal, including notable events such as Tauktae and Gulab. The implementation details, the handling of extreme events, and the process of informed decision-making are thoroughly discussed in detail.