Abstract

: This paper proposes a decision support system (DSS) for long‐term investment planning of water resources infrastructure taking into account the uncertainty inherent in budget availability. The DSS adopts integer goal programming (IGP) to first select the projects that best contribute to the social, economic, and environmental goals of the project areas. Stochastic programming (SP) then selects the budget level that has the highest expected returns for all possible states of the system. The developed DSS recommended planning for a high budget level in the Chiang Mai case study area, which is consistent with the level of funding that was allocated and distributed over the 25‐year analysis period. Uncertainty in cost estimation was also found to play a major role in project selection.

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