Decision Support System for Monthly Operation of Hydropower Reservoirs: A Case Study

Abstract

This paper presents a decision support system for multipurpose reservoir operation. The mathematical models in the system are formulated for monthly operation of hydropower reservoirs. The key components of the system are four main modules: database management, inflow modeling and forecasting, operation management, and real-time operation. Flexibility is the key feature of the system, providing the users with different decision tools and different indices for measuring the performance of each tool. A cost function is developed based on the present value of the total capital cost and the cost of operation and maintenance of the system. This cost function, which is developed based on “reasonable” estimates of water and energy prices, is used to measure the performance of reservoir operation policies. A utility function based on multicriterion decision making (MCDM) that uses an analytical hierarchy process is also developed. The MCDM utility function enables decision makers to incorporate the priority of different objectives in developing optimal operating policies and can be effectively used when the priority of objectives is not clear and the decision-making process relies mainly on the decision maker’s preferences. Both economic and MCDM utility functions are implemented and coupled with deterministic and stochastic optimization models. The decision support system (DSS) is applied to the largest surface water resources system in Iran, namely, the Dez and Karoon river-reservoir system. The results of the case study have shown that the DSS has been able to significantly increase the long-term power generation of the system while satisfying water demands for different purposes.