Decision Support for Strategic Water Management: Mdss in the Large Dam Context

Abstract

Based on findings from a review of the effectiveness of large dam projects worldwide, the World Commission on Dams (WCD) has stressed the need for an assessment of alternative options to improve decision-making processes in water resources and energy development. Besides the importance of rights affected and risks caused by the projects, the need to consider equity issues was also emphasized. Multi-criteria analysis (MCA) methods were recommended to support decision-making in a cross-disciplinary context. The aim of this paper is to test the potential of the recently developed MULINO methodology and DSS tool (mDSS) in support of the implementation of the WCD recommendations in future dam projects. Superimposing the DPSIR approach (Driving force—Pressure—State—Impact—Response) and multi-criteria analysis methodology, mDSS was applied in a theoretical re-assessment of the decision to undertake the Ceyhan Aslantas Dam Project, which took place in Turkey in the early 1970s. Using the information available from the case study of the WCD, the application of mDSS provides insight into the values prevailing among decision makers, stakeholders and experts in the region with respect to the notion of sustainability. An exploration of the uncertainties associated with the information supporting the planning process, and of their possible effects on decision-making, is also specifically addressed. Applications of sensitivity and sustainability analysis were enlightening with regard to the specification of methodological advancements. Referring to large infrastructure projects, the problem of structuring needs to be revised. Allowing for the identification of descriptive, as well as value-oriented, normative criteria, the analytical potential of the mDSS tool is strengthened with regard to sustainability.