Abstract
The availability of irrigation water greatly impacts on the profitability of the agricultural sector in South Africa and is largely determined by prudent decisions related to water release strategies at open-air irrigation reservoirs. The selection of such release strategies is difficult, since the objectives that should be pursued are not generally agreed upon and unpredictable weather patterns cause reservoir in flows to vary substantially between hydrological years. In this paper, a decision support system is proposed for the selection of suitable water release strategies. The system is based on a mathematical model which generates a probability distribution of the reservoir volume at the end of a hydrological year based on historical reservoir in flows. A release strategy is then computed which centres the expected hydrological year-end reservoir volume on some user-specified target value subject to user-specified weight factors representing demand satisfaction importance during the various decision periods of the hydrological year. The probability of water shortage for a given year-end transition volume may be determined by the decision support system, which allows for the computation of acceptable trade-off decisions between the fullment of current demand and the future repeatability of a release strategy. The system is implemented as a computerised concept demonstrator which is validated in a special case study involving Keerom Dam, an open-air reservoir in the Nuy agricultural district near Worcester in the South African Western Cape. The system's strategy suggestions are compared to historically employed strategies and the suggested strategies are found to fare better in maintaining reservoir storage levels whilst still fulfillling irrigation demands. Keywords: Decision support, reservoir releases
Highlights
JC van der Walt & JH van VuurenSouth Africa is classified as a semi-arid, water-stressed region, with an average annual rainfall of 450 mm — almost half the global average of 860 mm [21]
The problem considered in this paper is the design and implementation of a user-friendly, computerised decision support system (DSS) which may aid the operators of an open-air irrigation reservoir in deciding upon a suitable water release strategy
In the first section of this literature review, we describe a number of methods available for meteorological data prediction, after which the focus turns in §2.2 to approaches available in the literature for calculating irrigation demand
Summary
South Africa is classified as a semi-arid, water-stressed region, with an average annual rainfall of 450 mm — almost half the global average of 860 mm [21]. The problem considered in this paper is the design and implementation of a user-friendly, computerised decision support system (DSS) which may aid the operators of an open-air irrigation reservoir in deciding upon a suitable water release strategy. This DSS provides a means for the effective comparison of different water release strategies through quantitative performance metrics and is capable of suggesting a strategy which best achieves userspecified levels of these performance metrics. The DSS put forward in this paper relies on a mathematical modelling framework, previously suggested by van der Walt and van Vuuren [24] This framework accommodates trade-off decisions between the fulfilment of demand and future strategy repeatability.
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