Abstract
A versatile, interactive model to predict geographically resolved epidemic progression after pathogen introduction into a population is presented. Deterministic simulations incorporating a compartmental disease model run rapidly, facilitating the analysis of mitigations such as vaccination and transmission reduction on epidemic spread and progression. We demonstrate the simulation model using rinderpest infection of cattle, a devastating livestock disease. Rinderpest has been extinguished in the wild, but it is still a threat due to stored virus in some laboratories. Comparison of simulations to historical outbreaks provides some validation of the model. Simulations of potential outbreaks demonstrate potential consequences of rinderpest virus release for a variety of possible disease parameters and mitigations. Our results indicate that a rinderpest outbreak could result in severe social and economic consequences.
Highlights
Rinderpest has been among the most devastating livestock diseases in history [1, 2]
Vaccination began in August, but some of the vaccine used was later found to be subpotent and many vaccinated animals were afflicted by rinderpest
Mitigation of a rinderpest outbreak without serious or even devastating effects on human society depends on disease recognition when case numbers are still small, and requires a response in a few days or 1–2 weeks depending on the transmissibility of the virus and the cattle population density
Summary
Rinderpest has been among the most devastating livestock diseases in history [1, 2]. Rinderpest virus is a virulent and highly contagious pathogen that infects many cloven-hoofed livestock and wildlife species, resulting in death rates as high as 90%. Rinderpest has ravaged cattle populations in Europe, Asia, and Africa over several centuries. Use of highly effective vaccines in the context of regional and national zoosanitary control and eradication efforts led to a world-wide effort for eradication beginning in 1994. The last wild case was reported in 2001 and rinderpest was declared officially globally eradicated in 2011. It is the first animal pathogen and only the second pathogen (after smallpox virus) that has been eradicated
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