Decision Support for Active Risk Management in Sustainable Forestry

Abstract

Active risk management is central to the implementation of sustainable forestry, yet a fairly unexplored field of research. This study attempts to present some components of an analytical framework for risk management centred on the decision situation. Within this framework, a systems analysis approach to providing decision support for risk management is presented with an example dealing with outcome risk. The approach covers identification of risk factors for which decision support could be useful for the problem holders, presentation of how one such risk factor, wind damage, can be characterised in terms of a computer model, and how this computer model can be used for providing decision support. In addition to outcome risk, there is risk due to knowledge uncertainty and uncertainty related to valuation. The implications of these uncertainties for active risk management are discussed. Furthermore, communicative criteria for making the decision support useful are discussed. Since the work on the concept is still under way, this is too early to evaluate. So far, however, our results have been met with interest not only from representatives of forestry but also from mass media.