Decision Science Perspectives on Hurricane Vulnerability: Evidence from the 2010–2012 Atlantic Hurricane Seasons

Robert Meyer,Ben Orlove,Kenneth Broad,Kerry Milch

doi:10.3390/atmos9010032

Robert Meyer, Ben Orlove + Show 2 more

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https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos9010032

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Abstract

Although the field has seen great advances in hurricane prediction and response, the economic toll from hurricanes on U.S. communities continues to rise. We present data from Hurricanes Earl (2010), Irene (2011), Isaac (2012), and Sandy (2012) to show that individual and household decisions contribute to this vulnerability. From phone surveys of residents in communities threatened by impending hurricanes, we identify five decision biases or obstacles that interfere with residents’ ability to protect themselves and minimize property damage: (1) temporal and spatial myopia, (2) poor mental models of storm risk, (3) gaps between objective and subjective probability estimates, (4) prior storm experience, and (5) social factors. We then discuss ways to encourage better decision making and reduce the economic and emotional impacts of hurricanes, using tools such as decision defaults (requiring residents to opt out of precautions rather than opt in) and tailoring internet-based forecast information so that it is local, specific, and emphasizes impacts rather than probability.

Highlights

Over the past few decades, scientific advances in hurricane prediction, coupled with policy changes related to construction codes and evacuation procedures, have reduced mortality and morbidity associated with tropical cyclones in the U.S In contrast, economic vulnerability to storm impacts continues to rise [1]
In the case of hurricanes, we find that decisions made before the onset of the hurricane season and during the approach and landfall are subject to multiple cognitive biases and other challenges
We are identifying some consistencies in human behavior before and during these hurricanes, which build on earlier findings reported in the literature, and which could be of use to others who work on vulnerability reduction and forecast communication

Summary

Introduction

Over the past few decades, scientific advances in hurricane prediction, coupled with policy changes related to construction codes and evacuation procedures, have reduced mortality and morbidity associated with tropical cyclones in the U.S In contrast, economic vulnerability to storm impacts continues to rise [1]. The decisions made by individuals and households are key to this growing vulnerability. Individuals and households do not always draw on improved forecasts and new policies to reduce their risk of experiencing harm. We focus on individual and household choices made over long and short time scales. These decisions are influenced by socioeconomic constraints, policy incentives, and cognitive biases related to risk perception. We closely examine several cognitive biases that come into play on both time scales when people make preparation decisions, drawing on evidence from four real-time studies over a three-year period of decisions made during Earl (2010), Irene (2011), Isaac (2012), and Sandy (2012) [2,3]. We offer a framework for improved decision making in the face of these biases to reduce vulnerability to hurricane damage and loss

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