Abstract
We analyze decision making under uncertainty in a search for an integral management solution for Playa Granada in the Guadalfeo River Delta (Granada, Spain), where the construction of a dam in the river basin is causing severe erosion. Different management strategies are considered. For each of them the assessment of the uncertainty in the accomplishment of the management targets is done with a methodology that takes into account the coupled action of atmosphere, ocean, and land agents and their intrinsic stochastic character. This information is used to infer the joint distribution function of three criteria that represent the economic benefit of different interest groups. A stochastic multicriteria decision method that accounts for the uncertainty in the performances of alternatives and also in decision makers preferences, is used to rank strategies according to their effectiveness in an informed and transparent process.
Highlights
The industrial development of the last two centuries and the growth of beach tourism have favored an irrational occupation of the coast that is usually justified for economic reasons
It shows the probability of the non-fulfillment of the management target, p f = Pr(Dmin ≤ 0)
This work applies the methodology for the management of a coastal stretch proposed by Félix et al (2012) to Playa Granada (Spain), a beach located in the Guadalfeo river delta that is suffering severe erosion problems since the construction of a dam in the watershed
Summary
The industrial development of the last two centuries and the growth of beach tourism have favored an irrational occupation of the coast that is usually justified for economic reasons. This one is inspired in the management strategy that the former Spanish Ministry of the Environment (Dirección General de Costas, DGC) is carrying out since the beginning of the regulatory activities of Rules Dam in 2005 Another alternative called A2 that considers the construction of a series of groins almost perpendicular to the shoreline and an initial nourishment work is analyzed. A1, the management strategy based on soft works, consists in an initial beach nourishment work with sediment size of D50 = 1.8 mm and yearly maintenance actions that consist in the pouring of the sand lost and the reshaping of the shoreline after spring in order to offer a beach in good conditions at the beginning of the summer It leaves the easternmost part of the shoreline without modifications, as historical information revealed -and numerical calculations confirmed it- that this zone does not suffer erosion problems.
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