Decision making in emerging markets: The Delphi approach's contribution to coping with uncertainty and equivocality

Abstract

Firms in emerging markets are particularly challenged by uncertainty and equivocality in their long-term oriented decision making. These markets are characterized by dynamic institutional contexts especially affecting the predictability of future developments in the business environment. Based on the organizational information processing theory (OIPT), we first analyze how widely applied decision theories, organizational as well as procedural approaches contribute to coping with uncertainty and equivocality in emerging markets from a decision-making perspective. Accounting for inherent information asymmetries, we then elaborate the potential of future-oriented Delphi studies to serve as an information processing aid. To demonstrate the applicability of Delphi-based studies in the context of emerging markets we draw on case examples centered on China's and India's automotive industry, India's aerospace and defense industry as well as the health insurance industry in rural India in 2020.