Decision Making in Emergency Operation for Power Transformers With Regard to Risks and Interruptible Load Contracts

Abstract

This paper sets out a framework for decision making in emergency operations for power transformers, which rely on interruption contracts as decision variables that take into account the risk of accepting some level of violation of the transformer's operating limits. The risk of failure is calculated by measuring the useful life of the transformer and the presence of dissolved gases. The useful life is estimated by means of the Arrhenius model of thermal damage, while incipient faults can be detected by dissolved gas analysis. The risk of transformer failure is estimated by examining the data cited above, on the basis of information theory concepts. It is formulated as a multiperiod optimization problem with linear objectives and nonlinear constraints and restricted to the risk of accepting transformer overloads. The results are validated by means of an adapted version of the IEEE14 system, which is shown to be effective as a tool for emergency decision making in the case studies included here.