Decision Making in Determining the Best Field Development Scenario Using Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP): Case Study of SANDHIGH Field

Abstract

The SANDHIGH field is one of the fields owned by PT Pertamina EP in West Java. This field was discovered in 1987 and is a gas-producing field with peak production reaching 45-50 mmscfd in 2002-2003 and cumulative gas production up to December 2020 reaching 200.1 BSCF. Gas production from this field has decreased drastically after 2003, and until March 2022, the production is only under one mmscfd, an apprehensive condition. Problem analysis has been carried out using the Kepner-Tregoe method. The leading potential cause of the decline in production in this field is the absence of a Plan of Development (POD). So, exploitation activities, that aim to increase production, cannot be carried out or even restrain the decline rate in production. In mid-2021, an initiation was made to make the SANDHIGH field POD by involving the Subject Matter Expert (SME) from the subsurface and surface engineers and advisors. Discussions with SKK Migas as government representatives were also carried out intensively to produce the best development scenario based on Value Focus Thinking (VFT). From these discussions emerged three alternative development scenarios. The Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) method is used to help select the best scenario from the three available options. The assessment criteria used include capital expenditure, operation expenditure, expected profit, implementation time, operability, and safety. Based on the results of the AHP analysis, it was found that Scenario-C was the best choice, with a value reaching 54.4 %. This scenario consists of 2 infill well drilling, two steps out well drilling and only producing gas until 2033.