Decision Making Bias in Complex Task Environments

Abstract

This presentation summarizes the results of an empirical study examining human judgment bias under conditions of uncertainty and time pressure in surface Anti-Air Warfare (AAW). A substantial body of research has demonstrated that humans apply a limited set of heuristics to simplify decision making in complex and ambiguous situations. Most of this research, however, has used college students making logical, but unfamiliar judgments. This study was designed to assess whether Naval personnel, trained and experienced in AAW operations, exhibit these biases when performing their normal duties. Specifically, we studied whether the judgments of Naval tactical action officers in a realistic task simulation exhibit characteristics of the biases of availability, representativeness, anchoring-contrast, and confirmation. Our prediction that experienced subjects would disregard lack of reliability in otherwise representative data was only partially supported by the study. On the other hand, each of our other predictions was strongly supported. Our subjects ignored baseline trends when other case-specific information was available (representativeness and availability). They were significantly influenced by the order they received evidence, showing a recency effect characteristic of contrast. Additionally, as is characteristic of confirmation bias, they recalled much more of the information that was consistent with their final hypothesis and evaluated it as more informative than the inconsistent data, regardless of which hypothesis they had adopted. Implications for Naval decision support systems information and display are discussed.