Decision-making after continuous wins or losses in a randomized guessing task: implications for how the prior selection results affect subsequent decision-making

Guangheng Dong,Xiao Lin,Xiaoxia Du,Hongli Zhou

doi:10.1186/1744-9081-10-11

Guangheng Dong, Xiao Lin + Show 2 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.1186/1744-9081-10-11

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Abstract

BackgroundHuman decision-making is often affected by prior selections and their outcomes, even in situations where decisions are independent and outcomes are unpredictable.MethodsIn this study, we created a task that simulated real-life non-strategic gambling to examine the effect of prior outcomes on subsequent decisions in a group of male college students.ResultsBehavioral performance showed that participants needed more time to react after continuous losses (LOSS) than continuous wins (WIN) and discontinuous outcomes (CONTROL). In addition, participants were more likely to repeat their selections in both WIN and LOSS conditions. Functional MRI data revealed that decisions in WINs were associated with increased activation in the mesolimbic pathway, but decreased activation in the inferior frontal gyrus relative to LOSS. Increased prefrontal cortical activation was observed during LOSS relative to WIN and CONTROL conditions.ConclusionTaken together, the behavioral and neuroimaging findings suggest that participants tended to repeat previous selections during LOSS trials, a pattern resembling the gambler’s fallacy. However, during WIN trials, participants tended to follow their previous lucky decisions, like the ‘hot hand’ fallacy.

Highlights

Decision-making is a goal-directed cognitive function involving the processes to choose from available options associated with varying levels of risk, uncertainty and reward [1]
The aim of the current study was to assess whether previous outcomes would affect subsequent decision-making and its neural correlates as assessed using functional magnetic resonance imaging while the risk level is held constant
This study focused on male participants because of the higher prevalence rates of gambling in males compared to females [28,29,30]

Summary

Introduction

Decision-making is a goal-directed cognitive function involving the processes to choose from available options associated with varying levels of risk, uncertainty and reward [1]. Xue’s study investigated the risk taking level after varying levels of wins or losses, and reported gambler’s fallacy during decision-making process [3]. Another way is that the risk level remains stable while the reward/punishment outcomes are random and trials are independent, as with coin tosses where the probability of a win or loss is always 50% for each independent trial [9]. The aim of the current study was to assess whether previous outcomes (continuous wins or losses) would affect subsequent decision-making and its neural correlates as assessed using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) while the risk level is held constant. Human decision-making is often affected by prior selections and their outcomes, even in situations where decisions are independent and outcomes are unpredictable

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