Decision analysis for environmental impact assessment and consensus formation among conflicting multiple agents — including case studies for road traffic

Abstract

In this paper we propose how the utility theory of MCDM (multiple criteria decision making) and MADM (multiple agents decision making) can be effectively utilized for environmental impact assessment (EIA) of public projects. In the EIA we propose to include an assessment of the preferences of the regional inhabitants in addition to an assessment of the physical/biological effects of each pollution. For assessing the preference of the regional inhabitants we take into account the complex interdependence, called convex dependence, among multiple attributes when we construct a multiattribute disutility function. By using a multiattribute disutility function, we can evaluate the effectiveness of various countermeasures for preventing the environmental impact of a particular project. We also propose to include a consensus formation process among conflicting multiple agents such as regional inhabitants and the enterpriser (developer) of the project concerned. For this purpose we construct a group disutility function for two conflicting agents, taking into account the convex dependence between them. This is called the multi-agent utility theory. By using such a group disutility function, we can model the mutual concessions of the two conflicting agents, and hence we can expect fairer MADM for realizing better social welfare. Case studies of the EIA of road traffic, i.e. evaluation of countermeasures and consensus formation modeling among conflicting agents, are included.