Deciphering Stakeholder Strategies in Electric Vehicle Battery Recycling: Insights from a Tripartite Evolutionary Game and System Dynamics

Abstract

Given that the global fleet of electric vehicles is expanding rapidly, leading to a surge in demand for power batteries, the significance of battery recycling has come sharply into focus. In this paper, we develop a tripartite evolutionary game model coupled with a system dynamics simulation approach to analyze the behavioral mechanisms of stakeholders in electric vehicle battery recycling and to identify the key factors influencing their strategic transformations. The model involves three key stakeholders: local governments, battery cathode manufacturers, and battery pack manufacturers. Through profit analysis and the formulation of a replicator dynamics system, coupled with the application of Vensim for system dynamics modeling, we analyze the effects of ten crucial exogenous variables on stakeholder strategies. Our research highlights the crucial role of government actions, such as subsidies and penalties, in directing corporate strategies. Notably, excessively high subsidies (over 2.1 million Chinese Yuan) may lead to dependency among cathode manufacturers. Market factors, including increased battery sales and the preference for low-carbon procurement by electric vehicle manufacturers, are shown to significantly motivate cathode manufacturers to adopt recycling strategies and encourage pack manufacturers to develop recyclable designs. Additionally, the introduction of EU battery regulations and the integration of cathode manufacturers into carbon trading schemes have been identified as positive catalysts for strategic shifts, especially for cathode manufacturers, while exerting minimal influence on pack manufacturers. This paper elucidates the intricate interaction of the behavioral patterns and key motivators affecting stakeholder strategies in electric vehicle battery recycling.