DECIDING TO CHANGE: AN EVENT SEQUENCE ANALYSIS OF TECHNOLOGY ADOPTION BEHAVIOR IN CONSUMERS

Abstract

Existing, staged models of consumer adoption behavior offer little in the way of theoretical justification, and their empirical validity is in doubt. A qualitative empirical study provides another view by exploring the behavioral decision process by which transportation consumers adopt alternatives to single occupancy vehicles. The study finds that adoption behavior consists of interplay between three conscious, cognitively distinct processes: selecting, evaluating and maintaining. All three processes are characterized in detail in this study. What emerges from the study's data is the first theory to explain the "how" of technology adoption in terms of endogenous mental processes. The study lays the foundation for a more comprehensive causal theory of the adoption process that will provide a step-by-step explanation of how events or life experiences cause a consumer's beliefs about a technology to change over time. It also identifies evaluating, selecting and maintaining as fundamental "microlaws" of innovation: regular rules that describe the generating processes of emergent innovations.