Deception, Counterdeception and the Future.

Abstract

Abstract : Deception and surprise have been an integral part of war since the beginning of recorded history. This force multiplier continues to be used to the present time because the surprising truth is that it almost always works. A determined adversary bent on deception, and willing to invest the required time and resources, will be successful and can achieve initial surprise. Counterdeception is a difficult task, and despite America's demonstrated intelligence collection capability, will not likely prove effective much of the time. While there are techniques that can reduce vulnerability to deception and surprise, the best option is to assume that sooner or later your adversary will achieve some deception successes, and plan accordingly. American officers operating as 'opposing forces' commanders at the National Training Center in California are already successfully manipulating intelligence indicators and deceiving our collection platforms. It will not be long until our adversaries learn to do the same.