Decenija populacionih promena u Evropi i Srbiji (2011 - 2020)

Abstract

The period 2011 - 2020 was full of challenges that shook the slow demographic trends. The impact of the global economic crisis, war conflicts, and pandemics has been remarkable on population dynamics around the world, especially in Europe. The main goal of this paper is analysis of basic demographic indicators of births, deaths, migrations, as well as age structure and changes in the total population in Europe and Serbia. Fertility continues to decline in most countries. Only Eastern European countries have a positive trend, while the lowest values are in the countries of the southern part of Europe. Serbia belongs to a smaller group of countries that have recorded a modest increase. The trend of increasing life expectancy in Europe stops abruptly in the year of the pandemic (2020) and returns to the level of 2013. The situation in Serbia was even more unfavorable than the European average. The migrant crisis in Europe, starting in 2015, is culminating with inflows of between 2.4 and 2.7 million migrants annually. Germany, Spain, France and Italy have the highest inflows. Half of the migrants are under 30 years old. In Serbia, the trend of emigration has continued, and depending on estimates, the negative annual migration balance amounts to 15 to 20 thousand people. Demographic aging of the population continues in most European countries. The population of Serbia has been one of the oldest in Europe and the world for many years, and the process in the period 2011-2020, compared to other European countries, is of moderate intensity. Half of the analyzed European countries have a negative natural increase, which will be an introduction to depopulation for many in the coming period. The forecast for Serbia is that the next census will show that the population of Serbia has decreased to the level of 60 years ago.