Decay radius of climate decision for solar panels in the city of Fresno, USA

Kelsey Barton-Henry,Leonie Wenz,Anders Levermann

doi:10.1038/s41598-021-87714-w

Abstract

To design incentives towards achieving climate mitigation targets, it is important to understand the mechanisms that affect individual climate decisions such as solar panel installation. It has been shown that peer effects are important in determining the uptake and spread of household photovoltaic installations. Due to coarse geographical data, it remains unclear whether this effect is generated through geographical proximity or within groups exhibiting similar characteristics. Here we show that geographical proximity is the most important predictor of solar panel implementation, and that peer effects diminish with distance. Using satellite imagery, we build a unique geo-located dataset for the city of Fresno to specify the importance of small distances. Employing machine learning techniques, we find the density of solar panels within the shortest measured radius of an address is the most important factor in determining the likelihood of that address having a solar panel. The importance of geographical proximity decreases with distance following an exponential curve with a decay radius of 210 meters. The dependence is slightly more pronounced in low-income groups. These findings support the model of distance-related social diffusion, and suggest priority should be given to seeding panels in areas where few exist.

Highlights

To design incentives towards achieving climate mitigation targets, it is important to understand the mechanisms that affect individual climate decisions such as solar panel installation
The growth of residential solar photovoltaic power generation systems and programs to spur their implementation has led to both increased data on installation patterns and study of the dynamics of their uptake
Peer effects on climate-related decisions have been identified through both passive, geographic effects (e.g. I see a panel close to my house) and active, social network effects (e.g. I hear about panels via word of mouth, or have similar tendencies to others with my socio-demographic or educational background) have both been suggested as important motivators for installation[1]

Summary

Introduction

To design incentives towards achieving climate mitigation targets, it is important to understand the mechanisms that affect individual climate decisions such as solar panel installation. Peer effects on climate-related decisions have been identified through both passive, geographic effects (e.g. I see a panel close to my house) and active, social network effects (e.g. I hear about panels via word of mouth, or have similar tendencies to others with my socio-demographic or educational background) have both been suggested as important motivators for installation[1] Distinguishing between these types of effects is difficult given that previous studies have been conducted on highly aggregated spatial levels (ZIP codes or census tracts), and peer effects may be confounded within these areas by the existence of similar trends within neighbourhoods that share social, demographic, or economic qualities. Previous qualitative research in Sweden has suggested that viewing, or living in proximity to a solar panel are of negligible influence on the likelihood of others installing panels, and that peer effects are generated through existing social networks[7,8] Both passive and active effects have been identified as having significant effects on the uptake of alternative fuel vehicles and resource conservation behaviors[9,10]. This is made possible by a data set of geo-located solar panels

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Conclusion