Decarbonizing energy islands with flexibility-enabling planning: The case of Santiago, Cape Verde

Abstract

The growing interest in fully decarbonizing worldwide energy systems requires abandoning traditional generation expansion planning in favour of other flexibility-enabling energy system planning tools allowing the integration of energy storage and sector coupling. Therefore, this paper proposes a mixed-integer linear programming formulation focused on enabling flexibility provision on integrated energy systems targeting independent sizing of power and energy capacities for simultaneous generation and storage expansion planning. The optimization problem minimizes investment, maintenance, operation and emissions costs over a 20 year horizon with hourly resolution. In this context, islands represent suitable study cases for the energy transition due to their exceptional renewable availability, and fast-paced development; despite being regions with extreme external dependence and isolation. In particular, the island of Santiago, Cape Verde is selected as study case given its existing targets regarding reaching 50 and 100% renewable shares in 2030 and 2040, its data availability, and the extreme seasonal variation in wind and solar resources. Four scenarios are considered. The first and second dismiss flexibility: business as usual (BAU), and another one aligned with the government goals (Green). Then, the other two exploit it: one equivalent to Green, FlexG, and a last one finding the Optimal. In addition, three energy demand growth levels are considered in order to reduce uncertainty, corresponding to 1, 3 and 5%. Last, a sensitivity analysis with three additional scenarios is performed to provide a thorough view of Cape Verde’s energy future. The results highlight the importance of flexibility exploitation which provides up to 85% savings and allows to decarbonize other sectors via electrification.