Abstract
The paper discusses existing trends and prospects for decarbonization in the Commonwealth of Independent States (the CIS), an international organization that regroups Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. The CIS occupies a significant share of Eurasia, representing a large share of global energy consumption and production with a corresponding carbon footprint. These countries and their decarbonization prospects are rarely discussed in the English-language scientific literature. This paper fills in this gap by offering a comprehensive analysis based on statistical data, policy documents, and scenario-based future projections. The results underline that revisiting Nationally Determined Contributions, increasing energy efficiency, and decoupling GDP growth from greenhouse gas emissions are essential to the implementation of the Paris Agreement. The future energy mix should include larger shares of renewable energy, hydrogen, fossil fuels (highly efficient with carbon capture), and nuclear energy to achieve energy security and decarbonize the economy of the region in the long term.
Highlights
The Commonwealth of Independent States have been a significant player at energy markets over the past years, primarily due to large hydrocarbon reserves of Azerbaijan, Russia, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan [1]
The CIS member states that are in the focus of this paper are Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan
The reason we exclude these two countries from the qualitative analysis is that Georgia seized its membership in The Commonwealth of Independent States (the CIS) in 2009 due to the conflict in South Ossetia and Ukraine is de jure a member state of the CIS and ratified the Agreement on the establishment of the CIS, but it did not sign the statutes of this international organization and in 2018 the President of Ukraine issued a decree that seized any participation in the CIS activities
Summary
The Commonwealth of Independent States (the CIS) have been a significant player at energy markets over the past years, primarily due to large hydrocarbon reserves of Azerbaijan, Russia, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan [1]. The first group of aforementioned six countries has been in a more advanced position with regard to tradition energy systems. Belarus has the most significant improvements in energy efficiency, while increasing the share of renewable and nuclear energy [3,4]. These changes make a positive impact on energy security. Energy security, measured in several dimensions (energy availability and affordability, energy and economic efficiency, and environmental stewardship, including carbon dioxide emissions), has not changed significantly for Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Tajikistan, slightly increased for Russia, and significantly decreased for Uzbekistan [5]
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