Decarbonization pathways of China’s provincial energy systems under carbon constraints: A case study of Guizhou Province

Abstract

The increasing energy demands complicate many provinces of China’s goals to address climate change. It has become a considerable concern for local governments and practitioners to develop a regionally appropriate pathway to reduce emissions based on their resources and social development needs. Taking Guizhou Province as an example, this study aims to determine the resource allocation and techno-economic path of each sector in the energy system to 2050 under the low-carbon policies. Taking the policy target or total carbon emissions as the boundary condition, this paper depicts four potential decarbonization scenarios through a multi-sectoral open-source global energy system model. To accommodate provincial energy systems with a higher geographical resolution, the model proposed in this paper considers the ramping constraints of base-load units and increases the optimization step size to the hourly level. In addition, a quantitative assessment of the existing barriers to the low-carbon transition of the Guizhou provincial energy system and the role of flexible decarbonization technologies are presented. Results show that the model proposed in this paper can accurately reflect the actual situation of Guizhou Province and significantly improve the sensitivity. Based on the analyses in this study, the policy scenario does not allow Guizhou province to meet the national climate target. In contrast, the other three scenarios show clearer and rapider emission reduction options. Compared to the policy scenario (PS), the investment cost increases to 26.3%, 38.3%, and 112.7% for the accelerated transition scenario (ATS), 2 °C, and 1.5 °C scenario, with a 24.7%, 35.2%, and 74.6% reduction in total emissions, respectively, indicating that a decarbonization pathway that combines ATS and 2 °C scenarios is the most appropriate way to balance economic and emission reduction benefits. This way calls for the status quo year to immediately begin deploying emission reductions, accelerating renewable energy development, and deploying appropriately affordable carbon capture and storage (CCS) and energy storage.