Decarbonization pathways of China's iron and steel industry toward carbon neutrality

Abstract

The deep decarbonization of the iron and steel industry (ISI) is essential for fulfilling the goal of global net-zero emissions. Existing studies for the multiple transition possibilities and competition of production technologies driven by the variable socioeconomic changes and the deployment of innovative technologies are scarcely discussed before. In this study, we build a dynamic modeling framework to track technological evolution and characterize the carbon neutrality pathways in China's ISI. We project that China's steel demand will decrease, while the scrap available for steel production will grow. Over the 40-year period, the steelmaking process will transform from blast furnace-basic oxygen furnaces (BF-BOFs) to scrap-based electric arc furnaces (scrap-EAFs) and hydrogen-based direct reduced iron electric arc furnaces (DRI-EAFs), and BF-BOFs can be completely phased out by 2060. CO2 emissions are expected to fall 63%–73% by 2060 in relation to the 2020 level. Production structural adjustment is the most effective measure.