Abstract
International shipping has finally set a target to reduce its CO2 emission by at least 50% by 2050. Despite this positive progress, this target is still not sufficient to reach Paris Agreement goals since CO2 emissions from international shipping could reach 17% of global emissions by 2050 if no measures are taken. A key factor that hampers the achievement of Paris goals is the knowledge gap in terms of what level of decarbonization it is possible to achieve using all the available technologies. This paper examines the technical possibility of achieving the 1.5° goal of the Paris Agreement and the required supporting policy measures. We project the transport demand for 6 ship types (dry bulk, container, oil tanker, gas, wet product and chemical, and general cargo) based on the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development’s (OECD’s) global trade projection of 25 commodities. Subsequently, we test the impact of mitigation measures on CO2 emissions until 2035 using an international freight transport and emission model. We present four possible decarbonization pathways which combine all the technologies available today. We found that an 82–95% reduction in CO2 emissions could be possible by 2035. Finally, we examine the barriers and the relevant policy measures to advance the decarbonization of international maritime transport.
Highlights
International maritime transport has been the main mode of transport for global trade over the past century and one of the cornerstones of globalization
The EU adopted a Monitoring, Reporting, and Verification (MRV) regulation for ships larger than 5000 gross tonnage calling at European Union ports and ports within the European Free Trade Area (EFTA), which entered into force in July 2015
We focus our analysis on trades between China and Europe and global trade
Summary
International maritime transport has been the main mode of transport for global trade over the past century and one of the cornerstones of globalization. One of the key factors that has hampered progress in defining an ambitious target is the lack of thorough studies that assess the technical possibility of decarbonizing international maritime transport, especially according to the more ambitious goal of the Paris Agreement—i.e., the 1.5 ◦C temperature limit. This paper presents a systematic assessment of the technical feasibility of decarbonizing maritime transport by 2035, and its implications for the required supporting policy measures. We study the possible decarbonization pathways that could conform to the 1.5 ◦C goal, where CO2 emissions would need to reach almost zero by 2035 This more ambitious goal is chosen since it would represent the most disruptive scale of adaptation by the industry, which poses the biggest policy challenges.
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