Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to assess the status and prospects of the decarbonization of maritime transport. Already more than two years have passed since the landmark decision of the International Maritime Organization (IMO) in April 2018, which entailed ambitious targets to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from ships. The paper attempts to address the following three questions: (a) where do we stand with respect to GHG emissions from ships, (b) how is the Initial IMO Strategy progressing, and (c) what should be done to move ahead? To that effect, our methodology includes commenting on some of the key issues addressed by the recently released 4th IMO GHG study, assessing progress at the IMO since 2018, and finally identifying other issues that we consider relevant and important as regards maritime GHG emissions, such as for instance the role of the European Green Deal and how this may interact with the IMO process. Even though the approach of the paper is to a significant extent qualitative, some key quantitative and modelling aspects are considered as well. On the basis of our analysis, our main conjecture is that there is not yet light at the end of the tunnel with respect to decarbonizing maritime transport.

Highlights

  • The purpose of this paper is to take stock of recent developments as regards the decarbonization of maritime transport and assess prospects for the future

  • As early as 2000, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) published its first study on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from ships, which estimated that international shipping in 1996 contributed about 1.8 per cent of the world total anthropogenic CO2 emissions

  • In the third IMO GHG study, the method that was used for distinguishing between international and domestic shipping was based on the ship type and size; for instance, emissions from yachts, tugs, fishing vessels, and ferries less than 2000 GT fell into domesI:\MEPC\75\MEPC

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Summary

Introduction

The purpose of this paper is to take stock of recent developments as regards the decarbonization of maritime transport and assess prospects for the future. Protection Committee (MEPC 72) and is known as the Initial IMO Strategy [1] It stipulates, among other things, ambitious targets to reduce these emissions, and expresses a strong political will to phase them out as soon as possible. As early as 2000, the IMO published its first study on GHG emissions from ships, which estimated that international shipping in 1996 contributed about 1.8 per cent of the world total anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Corbett and Fischbeck [5] presented a global emissions inventory of NOx and SOx emissions from ships Their model used data from marine exhaust emission tests reporting fuel-based emission rates (i.e., used mainly to derive the emission factors), international marine-fuel usage information, and the characteristics of the engines of commercial vessels.

Where Do We Stand as Regards Maritime GHG Emissions?
GHG Trends
Fuel Consumption Calculation
Methane and Black Carbon Emissions
Summary
Assessing Progress on the Initial IMO Strategy
Findings
Conclusions
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