Abstract
The Chinese government has deployed ambitious plans for its power system and renewable energy development to achieve carbon neutrality. To assess the decarbonization processes of regional power grids, this study develops an inventory of the power generation structure at the provincial level based on current official power planning, and simulates the power generated and carbon emissions intensity in China's regional power grid from 2020 to 2050 using a dynamic scenario. Results found the following: First, compared with 2020, carbon emissions from the power system in 2050 decreased by approximately 1.8268 BtCO2, and the North China regional power grid contributes the most to emission reduction. Second, except for Tibet power grid, the life-cycle carbon emissions coefficients in China's regional power grids maintained a downward trend, with carbon emission coefficients ranging from 0.1439 to 0.2385 kgCO2eq/kWh in 2050. Third, cross-regional power exchange can effectively reduce the carbon emission intensity of regional power grids dominated by installed fossil energy and Northwest regional power grid is the largest power output region, reaching 1077.78 TWh in 2050. Overall, this study assesses the prospective decarbonization of China's regional power grids. The findings contribute to the development of power decarbonization planning and provide data references for electrification of energy-consuming sectors.
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