Abstract
Around 80% of domestic heat demand in Great Britain (GB) is supplied by natural gas, but continuing to heat dwellings in this way is unlikely to be compatible with national emission reduction targets. Electrical heating using heat pumps is expected to play a significant role in future space heating and hot water provision. The assessment of future heating technologies requires knowledge of the current demand for heat at short time intervals in order to evaluate peak demands and possible storage requirements. Existing half-hourly national heat demand estimates are built on data from small samples of dwellings. This paper provides estimates of GB domestic heat demand under mild, normal and cold weather conditions based on data from over 6000 dwellings collected between May 2009 and July 2010 that participated in the GB smart meter trial. The calculated peak domestic heat demand of 170 GW is around 40% lower than previously calculated suggesting that the difficulties surrounding the electrification of heat are far less profound than previously assumed. These results can be used in the development of future energy pathways and scenarios.
Highlights
In the United Kingdom (UK),1 household energy use is responsible for more than a quarter of national greenhouse gas emissions (Palmer and Cooper, 2013) and 75% of household energy use is for space and water heating
Continuing to provide around 80% of UK domestic heat demand by natural gas is incompatible with emission reduction targets, unless very large improvements are made in building fabric efficiency
When it is cold, boilers may be operating at full load, heat emitters producing their maximum output and thermostatic control modulating the heat output (Kane et al, 2015), the peak heat output is constrained by the heating system itself
Summary
In the UK, household energy use is responsible for more than a quarter of national greenhouse gas emissions (Palmer and Cooper, 2013) and 75% of household energy use is for space and water heating. Continuing to provide around 80% of UK domestic heat demand by natural gas is incompatible with emission reduction targets, unless very large improvements are made in building fabric efficiency. It is likely that emission reductions will be achieved through a combination of increased building efficiency and switching to lower CO2 forms of heating In six scenarios produced independently by Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC), the Committee on Climate Change, the Energy Technologies Institute, National Grid, the UK Energy Research Centre and Delta EE, the proportion of heat demand which was electrified ranged from 30% to 75%
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