Decadal Seismicity Prior to Great Earthquakes at Subduction Zones: Roles of Major Asperities and Low-Coupling Zones

Abstract

Decadal forerunning seismic activity of magnitude Mw ≥ 5.0 is mapped for all 45 mainshocks of Mw 7.7 to 9.1 at subduction zones of the world from 1993 to mid 2020. The zones of high slip in nearly all great earthquakes were nearly quiescent beforehand and are identified as the sites of great asperities and zones of strong seismic coupling. Much forerunning activity occurred at smaller asperities along the peripheries of the rupture zones of many great and giant mainshocks. Those sizes of great asperities as ascertained from forerunning activity generally agree with the areas of high seismic slip as determined by others from geodetic and tide-gauge data and finite-source seismic modeling. Asperities are strong, well-coupled portions of plate interfaces. Different patterns of forerunning activity on time scales of about 5 to 45 years are attributed to either the sizes and spacing of asperities (or lack of). This permits many great asperities to be mapped decades before they rupture in great and giant shocks. Several poorly coupled subduction zones such as Java, Lesser Sunda, Marianas, Tonga and Kermadec are characterized by few great thrust earthquakes and little, in any forerunning activity. Rupture zones of many great and giant earthquakes are bordered either along strike, updip, or downdip by zones of lower plate coupling. Several bordering regions were sites of forerunning activity, aftershocks, and slow-slip events. The detection of forerunning and precursory activities of various kinds should be sought on the peripheries of great asperities as well as within zones of high co-seismic slip.