Decadal Climate Variation and Coho Salmon Catch

Abstract

When temporally smoothed data are used for the period 1925 to 1985 there is a close inverse statistical relationship acting at an interdecadal timescale between the Pacific Northwest (PNW) air temperatures and Coho salmon catch off the coast of Washington and Oregon. This relationship is now well known, although not fully explained, but at the time of its discovery in 1994 it was part of advances being made by several research groups on interdecadal-scale climate/ecological changes in the PNW (Greenland 1995). The discovery and later, related findings may be usefully examined within the context of the framework questions of this book (see chapter 1) because it provides a very interesting example of climate variability and ecosystem response found, in part, by Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) investigators. The logical progression for this chapter is first to review a little of the relationship between Coho salmon and climate and then to explain how a study at one LTER site led to a finding with regional implications. An update of the findings at interdecadal-scale climate/ecological changes in the PNW is then appropriate, followed by a discussion of the topic with the framework questions of this book. The PNW is defined, for the purposes of this chapter, as the area of Washington and Oregon west of the crest of the Cascade Range. The term decadal is used loosely in this chapter to refer to changes that focus on time periods of about 10 to 30 years in length. Salmon live part of their lives in terrestrial, freshwater environments and part in marine, saltwater environments. The salmon life history starts with fertilized eggs remaining in gravel in freshwater stream beds and hatching after 1–3 months. One to five months later, fry emerge in the spring or summer. Juvenile fish are in freshwater from a few days to 4 years, depending on species and locality. After the juveniles change to smolts, they can migrate to the ocean, usually in spring or early summer, often taking advantage of streamflows driven by snowmelt. The fish spend 1–4 years in the ocean and then return to their freshwater home stream to spawn and die. More specifically, the typical life cycle for Oregon Coho spans 3 years (18 months in freshwater and 18 months in the ocean).