Abstract
Decadal prediction uses climate models forced by changing greenhouse gases, as in the International Panel for Climate Change, but unlike longer range predictions they also require initialization with observations of the current climate. In particular, the upper-ocean heat content and circulation have a critical influence. Decadal prediction is still in its infancy and there is an urgent need to understand the important processes that determine predictability on these timescales. We have taken the first Hadley Centre Decadal Prediction System (DePreSys) and implemented it on several NERC institute compute clusters in order to study a wider range of initial condition impacts on decadal forecasting, eventually including the state of the land and cryosphere. The eScience methods are used to manage submission and output from the many ensemble model runs required to assess predictive skill. Early results suggest initial condition skill may extend for several years, even over land areas, but this depends sensitively on the definition used to measure skill, and alternatives are presented. The Grid for Coupled Ensemble Prediction (GCEP) system will allow the UK academic community to contribute to international experiments being planned to explore decadal climate predictability.
Highlights
The International Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) monitors and assesses the evidence for climate change and the probable future scenarios of that change
One contribution of 24 to a Discussion Meeting Issue ‘The environmental eScience revolution’. This journal is q 2008 The Royal Society model are used for assessments because by sampling more uncertainty in climate representation, it should be possible to average out some of the biases of the individual modelling frameworks. These scenario predictions are run for periods of 100 years into the future with a range of possible anthropogenically controlled CO2, and other greenhouse gas concentrations specified
The climate models are assumed to lose all memory of their initial conditions and current observations of the Earth’s climate were not used in any direct way in IPCC AR4 for making such scenario predictions
Summary
The International Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) monitors and assesses the evidence for climate change and the probable future scenarios of that change. Model are used for assessments because by sampling more uncertainty in climate representation, it should be possible to average out some of the biases of the individual modelling frameworks These scenario predictions are run for periods of 100 years into the future with a range of possible anthropogenically controlled CO2, and other greenhouse gas concentrations specified. It is a major challenge to make climate model forecasts with a range of 1–10 years ahead, intermediate between the seasonal forecasting range and climate scenario predictions On these longer timescales, it is no longer possible to neglect the variable impact of external forcings, in particular the role of CO2 and other anthropogenic gases, and variations in the solar cycle.
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