Abstract
In the last 40 years, the rice-cropping system has considerably changed in the Ayeyarwady Delta. The large archive of satellite imagery provides a history of how land and water resource managements have changed in the face of growing populations, resource demand, and climate change. This study aimed to assess the decadal changes in the rice-cropping system in the Ayeyarwady Delta by using the large archive of satellite imagery for the last 40 years (1981 − 2020). The long-term NDVI dataset provided various information on rice cultivation. Signal processing techniques were used to detect on the historical changes in the rice-cropping system, and the impact of climate change was assessed by using trend analysis. Until the 1980s, single-cropping of summer rice was dominant in the Delta. To enhance the grain yield of rice, the irrigation facilities were introduced in 1992 under an initiative of the Myanmar government. As a result, the annual cropping intensities increased from 1.087 ± 0.390 in the 1980s to 1.422 ± 0.499 in the 2010s. The information on historical change in the rice-cropping system would be useful to consider the practical and cost-effective utilization of remaining land and water resources. Moreover, the trend analysis of NDVI time-series showed negative trends in coastal areas. This indicates that the rice production in coastal areas has been constrained by the saline intrusion. The salt-affected areas are expected to expand under future climate change scenarios. Government support is highly required for sustainable rice production in the Delta.
Highlights
Agriculture is the largest economic sector in Myanmar, and the sustainable growth strategy for rice production is the main economic policy (Maung 1998)
Several studies suggest that increasing temperature, rising sea level, and changes in patterns of rainfall and its distribution under climate change could lead to a modification in land and water resources for rice production (Wassmann et al 2009; Zabel et al 2014; Chun et al 2016; Shrestha and Htut 2016)
The time-series of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) in agriculture was collected from the same one-pixel location within Kangyidaunt Township in the 1980s and 2010s
Summary
Agriculture is the largest economic sector in Myanmar, and the sustainable growth strategy for rice production is the main economic policy (Maung 1998). Successive Myanmar governments have attempted to expand the arable land area to maximize the rice production. It is necessary to understand the distribution pattern of the rice-cropping system for apposite water resource management. Several studies suggest that increasing temperature, rising sea level, and changes in patterns of rainfall and its distribution under climate change could lead to a modification in land and water resources for rice production (Wassmann et al 2009; Zabel et al 2014; Chun et al 2016; Shrestha and Htut 2016). There are serious implications for food security if no effort is made to adapt rice production to climate change
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