Decadal Change in Tropical Cyclone Activity over the South China Sea around 2002/03

Abstract

Abstract This study investigates the decadal change in tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the South China Sea (SCS) in the boreal summer (June–August) since the early 1990s and explores possible causes behind it. Results show that the SCS TC activity experienced an abrupt decadal decrease at around 2003/03. Compared to the TC activities from the early 1990s to 2002, the number of TCs formed in the SCS markedly decreased from 2003 through the early 2010s. Moreover, most of the TCs were primarily confined within the SCS basin during this period. The TCs that formed during the period of 2003–11 usually moved west-northwestward and rapidly weakened after making landfall. It is found that a significant decadal-scale sea surface temperature (SST) warming occurred in the northern Indian Ocean and the western Pacific Ocean after 2002 while convection intensified over the tropical regions between 60° and 80°E and around 150°E, respectively. The warm SST anomalies induced an anomalous subsiding flow over the SCS basin via the Walker-like (zonal) circulation. Meanwhile, anomalously dry, sinking air around 5°–20°N derived from local Hadley (meridional) circulation reinforced the subsiding flow of the zonal circulation. The above circulation patterns suppressed TC genesis over the northern SCS, leading to the decadal decrease in TC activity that occurred around 2002/03. In addition, in conjunction with the local anomalous easterly flow, the intraseasonal atmospheric variability over the SCS has decreased since the early 2000s. This is unfavorable for the development of synoptic-scale disturbances and may also contribute to the decadal decrease in TC activity.