Decadal and Century-Long Changes in Storminess at Long-Term Ecological Research Sites

Abstract

Ecological disturbances at Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) sites are often the result of extreme meteorological events. Among the events of significance are tropical storms, including hurricanes, and extratropical cyclones. Extratropical storms are low-pressure systems of the middle and high latitudes with their attendant cold and warm fronts. These fronts are associated with strong, horizontal thermal gradients in surface temperatures, strong winds, and a vigorous jet stream aloft. These storms and their attendant fronts generate most of the annual precipitation in the continental United States and provide the lifting mechanisms for thunderstorms that, on occasion, spawn tornadoes. Off the United States West and East Coasts, extratropical storms generate winds, wind waves, wind tides, and long-shore currents that rework coastal sediments, alter landscape morphology, and change the regional patterns of coastal erosion and accretion (Dolan et al. 1988). Although extratropical storms do not match hurricanes in either precipitation intensity or in the strength of the winds generated, they are much larger in size and have a more extensive geographic impact. On occasion, extratropical storms will intensify at an extraordinary rate of 1 millibar (mb) per hour for 24 hours or more. Such storms are classed as “bomb” and are comparable to hurricanes. Extratropical storms occur in all months of the year but are most frequent and more intense in winter when the north-south temperature contrast is large and dynamic support for storm intensification from the stronger jet stream aloft is great. In this chapter, we will explore the history of storminess for those LTER sites in the continental United States at which more than a century of data on storms and their storm tracks are readily available. Specifically, we will look at the record of changes in storminess at both the regional and national scales. During the 1990s, significant storms along the U.S. West Coast and droughts and fires in Florida in an El Niño year led to a hypothesis that El Niño and La Niña conditions were associated with a modulation in the frequency of storms. In addition, it has been suggested that the frequency of El Niño and La Niña events and, by inference, storminess, has increased during the past century.