Decadal analysis of impact of future climate on wheat production in dry Mediterranean environment: A case of Jordan

Abstract

Different aspects of climate change, such as increased temperature, changed rainfall and higher atmospheric CO2 concentration, all have different effects on crop yields. Process-based crop models are the most widely used tools for estimating future crop yield responses to climate change. We applied APSIM crop simulation model in a dry Mediterranean climate with Jordan as sentinel site to assess impact of climate change on wheat production at decadal level considering two climate change scenarios of representative concentration pathways (RCP) viz., RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Impact of climatic variables alone was negative on grain yield but this adverse effect was negated when elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations were also considered in the simulations. Crop cycle of wheat was reduced by a fortnight for RCP4.5 scenario and by a month for RCP8.5 scenario at the approach of end of the century. On an average, a grain yield increase of 5 to 11% in near future i.e., 2010s–2030s decades, 12 to 16% in mid future i.e., 2040s–2060s decades and 9 to 16% in end of century period can be expected for moderate climate change scenario (RCP4.5) and 6 to 15% in near future, 13 to 19% in mid future and 7 to 20% increase in end of century period for a drastic climate change scenario (RCP8.5) based on different soils. Positive impact of elevated CO2 is more pronounced in soils with lower water holding capacity with moderate increase in temperatures. Elevated CO2 had greater positive effect on transpiration use efficiency (TUE) than negative effect of elevated mean temperatures. The change in TUE was in near perfect direct relationship with elevated CO2 levels (R2>0.99) and every 100-ppm atmospheric CO2 increase resulted in TUE increase by 2kgha−1mm−1. Thereby, in this environment yield gains are expected in future and farmers can benefit from growing wheat.