Debt in Transition Economies: Where is it Heading, What can be Done About it?

Abstract

Since the start of the transition, the countries of central-eastern Europe and the Baltic States, South-Eastern Europe and the CIS have experienced a wide variety of debt developments. The paper traces the main developments in the indebtedness of the countries in the region and shows how the debt burdens of countries have changed dramatically. While some countries that were heavily indebted at the beginning of the transition have reduced their debt burdens, others that started off debt-free have accumulated debt to such an extent that it may now be unsustainable. The paper places special emphasis on the issue of external and public debt sustainability and the build-up of debt between CIS countries and the related energy payments crisis. The article concludes with some possible approaches to debt workouts for CIS countries, including several types of debt swaps. JEL classifications : P20, P35