Abstract
Recent population growth and actions near hilly areas increase the vulnerability of occurring landslides. The effects of climate change further increase the likelihood of landslide danger. Therefore, accurate analysis of unstable slope behavior is crucial to prevent loss of life and destruction to property. Predicting landslide flow path is essential in identifying the route of debris, and it is essential necessary component in hazard mapping. However, current methodologies of determining the flow direction of landslides require costly site-specific data such as surface soil type, categories of underground soil layers, and other related field characteristics. This paper demonstrates an approach to predict the flow direction without site-specific data, taking a large landslide incident in Sri Lanka at Araranyaka region in the district of Kegalle as a case study. Spreading area assessment was based on deterministic eight-node (D8) and Multiple Direction Flow (MDF) flow directional algorithms. Results acquired by the model were compared with the real Aranayaka landslide data set and the landslide hazard map of the area. Debris paths generated from the proof of concept software tool using the D8 algorithm showed greater than 76% agreement, and MDF showed greater than 87% agreement with the actual flow paths and other related statistics such as maximum width of the slide, run-out distance, and slip surface area.
Highlights
A landslide is widespread in earth motion when the slope changes from a steady to an unsteady state
For evaluation of the carried-out work, Aranayaka landslide data were taken from the National Building Research Organisation (NBRO), which is designated as the leading national point for landslide managing in Sri Lanka
Based on the result of different simulations, it is observed that both Single Directional Flow (SDF) and Multiple Direction Flow (MDF) flow paths fit inside the actual landslide boundary when the initiation points are given, and flow directions are in the proper direction of the actual landslide
Summary
A landslide is widespread in earth motion when the slope changes from a steady to an unsteady state. There are many categories of landslides, namely Rock Slides, Earth Flows, Debris Slides, Debris Flows, and Rock Falls [1]. Predicting a landslide flow path is very important for determining the flow path and the sedimentation area. It is vital for mapping the hazards of landslides, early warnings, evacuation, and mitigation. Even without site-specific information, if there is a method that can be used to get an idea of the landslide-prone area, the landslide's flow path can be predicted, and evacuation paths can be decided. This work can be used to get an idea about the elevation and possible flow paths of a site prior to visiting without expensive site-specific data
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