Debris flow volume prediction model based on back propagation neural network optimized by improved whale optimization algorithm.

Abstract

Debris flow is a sudden natural disaster in mountainous areas, which seriously threatens the lives and property of nearby residents. Therefore, it is necessary to predict the volume of debris flow accurately and reliably. However, the predictions of back propagation neural networks are unstable and inaccurate due to the limited dataset. In this study, the Cubic map optimizes the initial population position of the whale optimization algorithm. Meanwhile, the adaptive weight adjustment strategy optimizes the weight value in the shrink-wrapping mechanism of the whale optimization algorithm. Then, the improved whale optimization algorithm optimizes the final weights and thresholds in the back propagation neural network. Finally, to verify the performance of the final model, sixty debris flow gullies caused by earthquakes in Longmenshan area are selected as the research objects. Through correlation analysis, 4 main factors affecting the volume of debris flow are determined and inputted into the model for training and prediction. Four methods (support vector machine regression, XGBoost, back propagation neural network optimized by artificial bee colony algorithm, back propagation neural network optimized by grey wolf optimization algorithm) are used to compare the prediction performance and reliability. The results indicate that loose sediments from co-seismic landslides are the most important factor influencing the flow of debris flows in the earthquake area. The mean absolute percentage error, mean absolute error and R2 of the final model are 0.193, 29.197 × 104 m3 and 0.912, respectively. The final model is more accurate and stable when the dataset is insufficient and under complexity. This is attributed to the optimization of WOA by Cubic map and adaptive weight adjustment. In general, the model of this paper can provide reference for debris flow prevention and machine learning algorithms.