Debates about export pipelines from the post-Soviet region: Opinion leaders and advocacy coalitions

Abstract

Based on a content analysis of over 5,500 media articles, this contribution analyses debates about export pipelines in five post-Soviet countries, namely Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Russia, Turkmenistan and Ukraine, focusing on time periods of decisive pipeline decisions. The analysis covers the entirety of the policy communities engaging in these debates, identifying opinion leaders, dissenting voices and relevant cleavages. It shows that even in authoritarian regimes broad groups of actors are involved in pipeline debates, with not just the ruling elites, but also representatives of foreign states and companies as well as domestic and foreign experts playing prominent roles. In most cases, a broad consensus about pipeline choices seems to be genuine and not the result of political pressure. This consensus focuses on narrow considerations of direct commercial and political gains from pipeline projects, largely ignoring broader societal and environmental impacts.