Abstract

BackgroundCycling is an increasingly important mode of transport for environmental and health reasons. Cycling fatalities in London were previously investigated in 1994 using routinely collected data. Since then, there have been shifts in the modes of transport used, and in transport policies. We sought to replicate the previous work using data on cyclist deaths in London between 1992 and 2006, specifically investigating whether heavy goods vehicles continued to pose a threat.MethodsObservational study based on analysis of time series of police road casualties data, 1992 to 2006, in London, UK. The main outcome measures were cyclists killed in road traffic collisions. Poisson regression and chi-squared test for homogeneity were used to assess time effects. Travel flow data was then used to estimate annual fatality rates per 100,000 cyclists per kilometre.ResultsFrom 1992 to 2006 there was a mean of 16 cycling fatalities per year (range 8-21). 146 deaths (60%) were in inner London and 96 in outer London. There was no evidence for a decline over time (p = 0.7) other than a pronounced dip in 2004 when there were 8 fatalities. Freight vehicles were involved in 103 of 242 (43%) of all incidents and the vehicle was making a left turn in over half of these (53%). The fatality rate ranged from 20.5 deaths in 1992 to 11.1 deaths in 2006 per 100,000 estimated cyclists per kilometre (rate ratio 0.54, 95% confidence interval 0.28 to 1.03).ConclusionsThere is little evidence fatality rates have fallen. Freight vehicles over 3.5 tonnes continue to present a disproportionate threat; they should be removed from urban roads and more appropriate means of delivery of essential goods found.

Highlights

  • Cycling is an increasingly important mode of transport for environmental and health reasons

  • The results showed adults were more frequently involved in fatal crashes than children, and heavy goods vehicles were over-represented, leading them to conclude: “In inner London, in relation to their traffic volume, heavy goods vehicles are estimated to cause 30 times

  • In 2006, transport policy in London changed to include a target of a 50% reduction by 2010 in cyclists killed and seriously injured in road traffic incidents compared with the period 1994-1998 [5]

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Summary

Introduction

Cycling is an increasingly important mode of transport for environmental and health reasons. We sought to replicate the previous work using data on cyclist deaths in London between 1992 and 2006, investigating whether heavy goods vehicles continued to pose a threat. In 2006, transport policy in London changed to include a target of a 50% reduction by 2010 in cyclists killed and seriously injured in road traffic incidents compared with the period 1994-1998 [5]. This is to complement a European Union initiative to halve road traffic deaths by 2010 [6]. We aimed to replicate the previous study by assessing trends in fatalities of cyclists in London between 1992 and 2006 and, investigating whether heavy goods vehicles continued to pose a threat to cylists

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