Deaths in a sunburnt country: Differential mortality responses to temperatures in a 'hot' country

Abstract

Anyone who has travelled to another climate zone can talk about the relative ease or difficulty they had becoming accustomed to their new location. We know that people do become adapted at some level to the climate in which they live. Adaptation may be physiological (for example, the number of sweat glands that develop is determined very early on in life), behavioural (increasing fluid intake in hot weather), or technological (air-conditioning in buildings and cars). Previous modelling of the health impacts of extreme temperature due to climate change has not compared culturally similar locations with different climates to determine how average responses to temperature differ between locations. Such regional level modelling is essential to more accurately forecast the future impacts of climate change in order to implement appropriate education and prevention strategies and to plan for changes to health service use. We present an analysis of the association between daily temperatures and mortality that we conducted for the Australian government’s Climate Change Review (the Garnaut Review), which explores for the first time the differential effects of temperature on mortality in Australia according to region and uses these baselines to model likely climate change impacts. Compared with much of Europe and North America, with whom Australia shares a substantial proportion of its genetic and cultural heritage, Australia is a relatively hot country. Because of its large size (almost the same area as the mainland United States) it covers numerous climatic zones, including wet tropics in the north, vast inland desserts, a Mediterranean-like climate in the south west, and cool temperate in the south east (Figure 1). The population is concentrated on the eastern side of the country.Figure 1 here. Average annual temperatures in Australia.