Death Star or Coherent Catastrophism?

Abstract

Our instinct for survival drives us to learn as much as possible about what goes on around us. The better we understand nature, the better we will be able to predict its vagaries so as to avoid life-threatening situations. Unfortunately, nature is seldom so kind as to arrange for disasters to occur like clockwork, yet that does not dampen our enthusiasm when even a hint of periodicity in a complex phenomenon is spotted. This helps account for the furor that was created when a few paleontologists claimed that mass extinctions of species seemed to recur in a regular manner. A cycle, a periodicity, had been found! That implied that perhaps they might be able to predict nature’s next move. This is how I interpret the extraordinary public interest that was generated by the claims made around 1984 that the mass extinction phenomenon showed a roughly 30-million-year period (others said it was 26 million years). Almost immediately, several books appeared on the subject as well as many, many articles in the popular press and in science magazines. This activity marked the short life of the Death Star fiasco. Given our instinctual urge to look for order in the chaos of existence, the identification of a periodicity in mass-extinction events was a great discovery, if real. What was not highlighted by those who climbed aboard the bandwagon, however, was that the last peak in the pattern occurred about 13 million years ago. If impact-related mass extinction events were produced every 30 million years, there obviously was no cause for concern that we would be hit by a 10-kilometer object in the next 17 million years. Phew! I think that the suggestion that mass extinctions occurred on a regular cycle caused as much interest as it did because we all want to believe that there is no immediate danger to us. The Death Star fiasco began when David Raup and John Sepkowski of the University of Chicago published a report claiming that mass extinction events recurred about every 26 million years. They were followed by Michael Rampino and Richard Stothers of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York who claimed that the period was more like 30 million years, at least during the last 250 million years.