Day-of-the-Week and Month-of-the-Year Effects in the Cryptocurrency Market

Abstract

This study examines the day-of-the-week (DoW) and month-of-the-year (MoY) effects in the cryptocurrency market, with a focus on Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH). Due to the absence of a specific closing time in the cryptocurrency market, the closing time of the daily data is taken as 23:59 UTC. Initially, an appropriate volatility model for the cryptocurrency market is established using the GARCH, EGARCH, and TGARCH models. The most appropriate model for BTC is ARMA(1,0)-EGARCH(1,1) and ARMA(1,0)-GARCH(1,1) for ETH. The results of the analysis indicate a leverage effect in the cryptocurrency market, where negative shocks cause a more significant increase in volatility than positive shocks. Based on this volatility structure, the DoW and MoY are analyzed. For BTC, returns on other days are lower compared to Mondays. However, for ETH, returns on Thursdays are lower than those on Mondays. In terms of volatility, both BTC and ETH show that the highest volatility occurs on Mondays. For the MoY effect, neither BTC nor ETH don’t exhibit a significant effect in the mean equation. Nevertheless, the variance equation indicates that January has higher volatility compared to other months, indicating the presence of a MoY effect in terms of volatility.