Abstract
In this paper, a comprehensive demand response model for the residential sector in the Jordanian electricity market is introduced, considering the interaction between the power generators (PGs), grid operators (GOs), and service providers (SPs). An accurate day-ahead hourly short-term load forecasting is conducted, using deep neural networks (DNNs) trained on four-year data collected from the National Electric Power Company (NEPCO) in Jordan. The customer behavior is modeled by developing a precise price elasticity matrix of demand (PEMD) based on recent research on the short-term price elasticity of Jordan’s residential and the analysis of the different types of electrical appliances and their daily operational hours according to the latest surveys. First, the DNNs are fine-tuned with a detailed feature analysis to predict the day-ahead hourly electrical demand and achieved a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 1.365% and 1.411% on the validation and test datasets receptively. Then the predictions are used as input to a detailed model of the Jordanian power grid market, where a day-ahead peak-time demand response policy for the residential sector is applied to the three distribution power companies in Jordan. Based on different PEMD analyses for the Jordanian residential sector, the results suggest a reduction potential of 5.4% in peak demand accompanied by a cost reduction of USD 154,505 per day for the Jordanian power sector.
Highlights
IntroductionThe rapid increase in the global economy and population has resulted in more energy demand in certain regions, in developing countries like India and
With energy demand being on the rise, the world is faced with high dependence on fossil fuels, leading to increased greenhouse emissions and global climate change
Pricing, HPDR, which is a combination of ToU and real-time pricing pricing (RTP), showed a lower decrement in the peak-to-valley index (PtV) by 12% and Coefficient of variation percentage (CVP) by 25% and increased social welfare by 18%
Summary
The rapid increase in the global economy and population has resulted in more energy demand in certain regions, in developing countries like India and. With energy demand being on the rise, the world is faced with high dependence on fossil fuels, leading to increased greenhouse emissions and global climate change. With the overall increase in fossil fuel demands, even though renewable energy is growing fast, it is not growing fast enough to meet the rise in energy demand at 1% for developed countries and 5% for developing ones [2]. By 2015, the total accumulated commercial loans and the advances from the Ministry of Finance (MoF) reached 4.9 Billion JDs by the national electric power company (NEPCO), which was 18.8% of Jordan’s GDP and accounted for one-quarter of the total consolidated public-sector debt, limiting the borrowing capacity of the government [3]
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